OLNEST

Measuring performance

Out-of-sample testing

Checking a strategy on data that was not used to design it.

How it works

The rule is developed on one slice of history and tested on another it has never seen. A strategy that works in-sample and fails out-of-sample was fitted to noise.

True out-of-sample testing means forward testing on data that did not exist when the rule was written. Everything else is partially contaminated by the researcher already knowing what happened.

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