The economy
Economic data release
Scheduled official statistics that move markets when they differ from expectations.
How it works
Inflation, employment, growth and sentiment surveys are published on a known calendar. Markets price in a consensus expectation beforehand.
What moves prices is the surprise, not the level. A weak number that was expected to be weaker can be received as good news.
Where it misleads people
Trading a release requires being right about the number and about how a market that already has a view will react to it. The second is harder than the first.
Related terms
- Consumer price indexThe main official measure of inflation, tracking the price of a fixed basket of goods and services.
- Gross domestic productThe total value of goods and services an economy produces in a period.
- Consensus estimateThe average of analysts’ forecasts for a company’s revenue or earnings.
- Unemployment rateThe share of people who want work and cannot find it, among those actively looking.
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