Behaviour
Decision journal
A written record of what you decided, why, and what would prove you wrong.
How it works
Recording the reasoning at the time is the only defence against hindsight bias, because memory rewrites itself to match outcomes.
The most valuable field is the falsification condition: what specifically would tell you the thesis has failed. Without it, every fall becomes an opportunity to add.
Related terms
- Hindsight biasBelieving after the fact that an outcome was obvious all along.
- Confirmation biasSeeking and believing information that supports what you already think.
- Investment policy statementA written document setting out what you are investing for, how, and what would make you change.
- Outcome biasJudging a decision by how it turned out rather than by whether it was well made.
More in Behaviour
Educational reference only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything, and tax treatment depends on your own circumstances and the country you are in.