Behaviour
Hindsight bias
Believing after the fact that an outcome was obvious all along.
How it works
Once you know what happened, the path to it seems clear and the alternatives that were live at the time become invisible.
It corrupts learning: if every past event looks predictable, you conclude the future is predictable too.
Where it misleads people
The defence is a written record made before the outcome. A decision journal is uncomfortable reading and the only reliable way to see what you actually believed.
Related terms
Mentioned in
More in Behaviour
Educational reference only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything, and tax treatment depends on your own circumstances and the country you are in.